Sunday, November 8, 2020

My Election Predictions Examined

On March 2, 2020, I made five predictions about the Presidential Elections on my blog. Here is a link, if you want to read it in full. Those predictions were made before the term COVID 19 was widely known and before the subsequent stock market crash and economic downturn. It was before Biden won the Democratic primary. In that post I promised that right or wrong, I would write a follow-up post to see how I did.

Prediction # 1 – “Trump will lose the 2020 election.” Well I had a 50-50 chance on that one, and got it right. Although I never would have guessed how long the vote count would go on.

Prediction # 2 – “Trump will not concede defeat on election night, November 3, 2020. He will not phone his Democratic opponent and congratulate him.”  Trump has still not conceded defeat or congratulated the President Elect. Instead he has claimed that he has won … by a lot!

Prediction # 3 – “There will be demonstrations and rallies across the country by Trump’s supporters who believe everything he says about the election.” That has happened, but they have been few in number. Perhaps more will follow. I think that the five day delay in knowing the results of the election has dampened the furor of the moment. For that I am thankful. The delay has given the country time to settle down and approach things more calmly.

Prediction # 4. “It will be the beginning of the end for the Religious Right.” The accuracy of that prediction cannot be known for years, but I stand by my prediction. The Religious Right, which has promoted a return to a view of America from the mid-twentieth century when there was a Christian hegemony in this country, has been discredited by its support for this president. Especially in the eyes of the young, who are the future voters of our nation. White Evangelicals are the only ones unaware that their “glory days” will never return.  America is not the White, Male, Christian, Straight, Anti-Choice nation they thought it was.

There were two more predictions that I wrote down that day in March but did not include them in the blog post. I had a hard time believing them myself, and so I did not share them. I will share them now. They both concern the inauguration of President Biden.

Prediction # 5 – I predicted that Trump will not leave the traditional letter from the outgoing president to the incoming president on the desk in the Oval Office, wishing him well and promising him his support. That seems like a pretty safe bet now.

Prediction # 6 – Trump will not attend the inauguration of the new presdient. He will say that he is an illegitimate president, and for that reason will not attend – just like Representative John Lewis did to him. Other presidents have done that before in American history, so it is not unprecedented.

Prediction # 7 – I have one more prediction to round the set off to the holy number seven. It is customary that former presidents keep a low profile for years after leaving office out of the respect for the new president. I predict that Trump will not follow that precedent.  I think that once out of office the ex-president will use this twitter account and public statements to undermine the work of the new administration. I would not be surprised if he begins his twitter tirade on Inauguration day.

I think that in time it will get worse. I am concerned that by his anti-government rhetoric, Trump will embolden a domestic terrorist network that will increase violent attacks against our country. White Supremacist and Christian Nationalist organizations are the most dangerous threats to our country, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Far worse than Islamist extremists. During his presidency Trump has pandered to them and sought their support. He will continue to do that after leaving the White House. Trump’s anti-democracy rhetoric will embolden domestic terrorism in the coming years, causing great harm to our country.

Those are my predictions. Like I said in the previous blog, I am not a prophet so they will not necessarily come true. I hope they do not come true. They don’t have to. Jesus said that some evil can only be driven out by prayer and fasting. So let us pray that Jesus binds this strongman. 

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